Af-Pak - Research, Analysis

Dismantle the Moghul Darbar!
By Bharat Verma - Indian Defence Review

Elders continue to glibly state that Pakistan being our neighbor, we cannot wish it away. Therefore, we have to learn to live with it. For the size and the resources of India, the fact is that Pakistan has a powerful neighbor in India and that it is time Pakistan learnt to live with us! New Delhi insists that it will not bend against terrorism and promptly succumbs - instead of sending a powerful signal that India will crush terrorism in its entirety through interventionist policy.

Triage: The Next Twelve Months in Afghanistan and Pakistan
By Andrew M. Exum, Nathaniel C. Fick, Ahmed A. Humayun, David J. Kilcullen - CNAS

Eight years into the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan, the situation is as perilous as ever and continuing to worsen. The campaign has been further complicated by a rapidly deteriorating security situation in Pakistan, where the center of gravity of the insurgency has now shifted. In counterinsurgency campaigns, momentum matters. Over the next 12 months, the United States and its allies must demonstrate they have seized back the initiative from the Taliban and other hostile actors.

Whither Pakistan? A five-year forecast
By Pervez Hoodboy - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

First, the bottom line: Pakistan will not break up; there will not be another military coup; the Taliban will not seize the presidency; Pakistan's nuclear weapons will not go astray; and the Islamic sharia will not become the law of the land.

That's the good news. It conflicts with opinions in the mainstream U.S. press, as well as with some in the Obama administration. For example, in March, David Kilcullen, a top adviser to Gen. David Petraeus, declared that state collapse could occur within six months. This is highly improbable.

Now, the bad news: The clouds hanging over the future of Pakistan's state and society are getting darker. Collapse isn't impending, but there is a slow-burning fuse. While timescales cannot be mathematically forecast, the speed of societal decline has surprised many who have long warned that religious extremism is devouring Pakistan.